Waiting looks smart for now, but it’s just keeping you in your comfort zone. It won’t move you forward.
The current market is the result of a building boom that’s already ended.
It's the first time in three decades that there are no new projects in the pipeline, and soon that could make finding affordable homes even harder.
Let’s talk with numbers and see what they tell us.
The Building Boom Is Over, But Most Renters Haven’t Felt It Yet
New condo sales in the GTA kept their streak of being at their lowest since 1991 in the fourth quarter (2021-2025). Developers aren’t launching new projects. In early 2026, Toronto didn’t see any new condo projects start.
Building a condo takes years from approval to move-in. The projects that won't start now are the homes that won’t be ready in 2028 or 2029.
Condo completions are set to fall from 29,291 units in 2025 to 22,066 in 2026, and then to 14,366 in 2027. By 2029, Urbanation expects almost no new condos will be finished.
This shortage won’t go away on its own. Renters will start to notice it in two or three years.
Why rents seem reasonable right now
Rents are lower for a clear reason. Many units built during the 2021 and 2022 boom have just been completed, adding significant supply and pushing rents down.
But that wave of new units is coming to an end.
The GTA is expected to have a rental shortage of 235,000 units over the next ten years. New purpose-built rentals aren’t being built quickly enough to balance slower condo development.
Once this current batch of homes is finished, there won’t be many new ones available. Vacancy rates will fall, landlords will stop offering deals, and rents will go up. This shift could happen suddenly.
What the buying market looks like today
Most renters aren’t really watching this side of the market.
In March 2026, the average selling price in the GTA was $1,017,796, down 6.9% from a year earlier. Homes are taking about 31 days to sell, compared to 24 days in March 2025. Sellers are open to negotiations, conditions are back, and bidding wars are rare.
CMHC predicts that by 2027, average prices will start to rise again as fewer new homes are finished and sales begin to outpace new listings.
You don’t need to catch the exact bottom. What matters is acting before these good conditions are gone.
Where the Window Is Open Right Now
Mississauga homes for sale sit in a clear buyer's market right now, and the numbers back it up.
In March 2026, the average sale price in Mississauga was $966,615, down from just over $1 million a year earlier. Homes remained on the market for about 52 days. There were 5.4 months of inventory, making it a strong buyer’s market.
For different property types, the HPI benchmark for detached homes in Mississauga is $1,272,000, down 9.2% from last year. Semi-detached homes are at $887,400, down 9.1%. Condos averaged $527,743 in March, compared to $583,918 a year ago.
Not every Mississauga home is sitting unsold. Move-in-ready homes in established areas like Lorne Park, Port Credit, and Mineola still attract serious buyers if they’re priced right. Among Mississauga homes for sale, overpriced listings are being ignored.
The opportunity is real, but it’s best for buyers who know their numbers and focus on the right properties.
Oakville real estate market has adjusted more than most buyers think.
The MLS HPI March 2026 Oakville and Milton report shows prices decreased:
- Composite benchmark 11.1% to $1,035,200
- Single-family benchmark 12.2% to $1,245,100
- Townhouses 8.8% to $708,200
- Condo apartments 11.8% to $533,300
Active listings were 35.5% above the five-year average, with 5 months of inventory, more than double the long-term average of 2.4 months for March.
Recent data shows that townhome absorption rates in Oakville have risen by over 25%, which means mid-market homes are moving toward balanced conditions. The luxury segment between $1.65M and $3M is also seeing more confident buyers in top neighborhoods.
Just to clarify, Oakville’s real estate market isn’t slow everywhere. Older listings and homes that need work are staying on the market. Buyers negotiate most on homes that have been on the market longer. Sellers who price their homes based on their condition are still making sales.
If you have your financing ready and know what you want, both the inventory and the price correction are working in your favor right now.
Time Is Already Ticking
This isn’t just talk. The timeline is set because the construction decisions were made two years ago, and those choices can’t be changed quickly.
Since fewer new projects are starting now, fewer homes will be finished between 2027 and 2029, even if demand rises. More people will be competing for rentals, and with not enough new supply, rents could stay high longer than expected.
Renters who buy in 2026 while the Toronto real estate market is soft might be acting when the numbers make sense, before everyone else notices.
Are you taking advantage of this window?
Most people waiting on the sidelines haven’t crunched the numbers. They’re hoping for certainty, but real estate never guarantees that.
How does a mortgage on a Mississauga condo stack up against your current rent? How do Oakville real estate prices today compare to what’s expected in 2028? What can your pre-approval get you right now?
According to TRREB’s Chief Information Officer, if market conditions keep tightening as they did in March 2026, selling prices could stay steady for the rest of the year.
The window of opportunity is open now, but the supply numbers show it won’t last. Act. Buy. Build.
