Suppose you’ve spent years infiltrating institutions, influencing media narratives, and issuing dire warnings to a defiant island neighbor—only to find your efforts at coercion insufficient. You have exhausted the political and psychological avenues, and frustration mounts. The island remains stubbornly independent. You warn its government once more: “We can do this the easy way, or we can do this the hard way.”
Yet the hard way presents formidable challenges. You have a vast arsenal and a massive military, but an amphibious invasion remains a high-risk endeavor. You cannot afford a failure that would ignite prolonged conflict and global backlash.
What is the alternative?
It is an island, after all. Perhaps a blockade can bring about submission without the perils of a full-scale invasion.
The question of how China might attempt to bring Taiwan to heel is central to military discussions worldwide, especially as Western nations focus on the ongoing war in Ukraine. This is not the first analysis of a potential naval blockade of Taiwan, nor will it be the last. However, it will provide an updated synthesis of the latest strategic assessments. Hence, our title: “Encircling Taiwan: Beijing’s Naval Blockade Strategies.”
This article follows Greymantle’s prior analysis of China’s PLA Navy capabilities (November 2024) and serves as the first installment of a three-part series.
STRATEGIC RATIONALE FOR A BLOCKADE
From Beijing’s perspective, a sustained air and naval blockade offers distinct advantages over a high-risk cross-strait invasion. The objective is not Taiwan’s destruction, but its capitulation under economic and psychological pressure, ultimately paving the way for reunification—without its current government.
Given the overwhelming strength of China’s naval and aerial forces, Taiwan’s ability to break a blockade alone would be nearly impossible. Unlike an invasion, which would provoke massive casualties and military losses, a blockade could achieve Beijing’s goals with comparatively lower human and material costs.
Economic strangulation is a key weapon. Taiwan relies on maritime trade for survival:
- 97% of its energy imports arrive by sea.
- 70% of its food is imported.
- The island’s economic engine depends on exports, particularly in semiconductors.
A blockade would cripple Taiwan’s economy, bringing hardship to its population and undermining confidence in its leadership. Additionally, Beijing would seek to avoid provoking excessive international intervention. A blockade, framed as a “quarantine” or “enforcement of territorial waters,” could be more diplomatically palatable than an outright invasion.
Another crucial factor: the current U.S. administration’s ambiguous stance on Taiwan. If China can isolate Taiwan without triggering a decisive American military response, it would deal a devastating blow to U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Greymantle will assess China’s potential blockade strategies under the assumption that it faces minimal external resistance, focusing on its likely naval tactics while prioritizing the avoidance of immediate armed conflict.
CHINA’S BLOCKADE REHEARSALS
For those observing closely, China has been systematically preparing for a blockade scenario for years.
Beyond its routine violations of Taiwan’s airspace—up 81% since 2023—Beijing has conducted multiple large-scale maritime drills simulating the encirclement of the island. The first such exercise came in response to Nancy Pelosi’s August 2022 visit to Taipei.
Senior Western military officials concur that these maneuvers serve as trial runs for an eventual blockade. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command leader Admiral Sam Paparo stated recently:
“The Chinese military’s aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan are not merely exercises. They are rehearsals.”
In particular, a summer 2024 operation stood out due to its scale and complexity:
- 42 PLA brigades (each normally composed of 5,000 troops, though partial deployments are likely)
- 150 naval vessels
- 200 amphibious assault craft
China’s displeasure with Taiwan’s newly elected President William Lai, a proponent of sovereignty, has intensified its military posturing. The largest rehearsal to date took place in late 2024, described in a Global Digest article:
“The PLA Navy launched its most extensive deployment since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. This operation simulated the interdiction of foreign vessels attempting to break a Taiwan blockade. The drills involved warships and aircraft conducting attack simulations, while the coast guard practiced intercepting commercial ships and sealing off Taiwan’s trade routes. This was a direct message to the incoming U.S. administration.”
Between December 9 and 12, 2024, China mobilized 90 warships, dozens of aircraft, and coast guard vessels.
Seven no-fly zones were declared across four Chinese provinces, covering the First Island Chain and stretching into Japanese waters. The PLAN also established six live-fire patrol zones around Taiwan.
The operation included:
- Simulated Blockades: Chinese naval forces rehearsed cutting off Taiwan’s maritime access, particularly through the strategic Bashi Strait (south) and Yamaguchi Strait (north), the island’s primary sea lanes.
- Airspace Incursions: PLA aircraft conducted repeated sorties into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
- Missile Demonstrations: Several missile test firings took place in Taiwan’s vicinity, signaling Beijing’s ability to strike key targets at will.
OPTION #1: A LOW-INTENSITY BLOCKADE TO TEST INTERNATIONAL RESOLVE
A blockade’s primary strength is its scalability. Unlike an invasion, which commits China to full-scale war, a blockade can be adjusted in intensity, allowing for strategic calibration. Several recent analyses from the Center for Strategic and International Studies outline Beijing’s available courses of action.
A low-intensity blockade could serve as an initial step, gauging the reactions of Taiwan, the United States, and its allies. This approach could include:
- Selective interdictions of cargo vessels entering Taiwan’s ports.
- Warnings to foreign ships to avoid the island’s waters.
- Cyberattacks on Taiwan’s transportation and logistics infrastructure to compound disruptions.
This limited approach allows China to exert pressure without immediately escalating into armed conflict. If Taiwan fails to capitulate, Beijing could then increase restrictions, tightening its grip on key supply chains.
Until next time, I remain —
Greymantle
